nerotan.blogg.se

1. #Retrospect vs hindsight full#
2. #Retrospect vs hindsight plus#
3. #Retrospect vs hindsight series#

Learn to react to events, instead of trying to predict them Adopt skepticism and pragmatism, even to your own thoughts 2. The hindsight bias leads to systematic error as well. "In general, heuristics are useful, but just as our manner of processing optical information sometimes leads to optical illusions, so heuristics sometimes lead to systematic error." In his book The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow points out: We employ mental shortcuts, called heuristics, when dealing with patterns and when we're making judgments and decisions in the face of uncertainty.

#Retrospect vs hindsight full#

More often than not, we find patterns where there are none (see the face in the full moon?). Thanks to our human nature, we look for patterns and give them meaning once we find them. This allows people to point to specific causes of an event (such as a catastrophe) and ask, "Why wasn't something done about it?" * The bias arises because people ignore the things that didn't happen or the things that didn't cause the event-known as the "availability heuristic". This is because after an event, the probability of it happening is, naturally, 100%. "Hindsight bias is the effect whereby people think that past events were predictable, or at least more predictable than they actually were. They were wild concoctions of his trouble mind.īut, of course, it all makes sense in retrospect for the gullible human brain. 'In the day of September 11, 2001, the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York are going to be hit by two airplanes', I would have converted myself into one his fanatics.īut none of his so called predictions were specific. You can interpret it in hundreds of ways because it is not specific. Of course, even if the passage was actually written by him, it's meaningless. They seek and take passages out of context and fit in with their personal interpretations - after de facto.įor example, 'two big birds crashing into two tall statues'.ĭid he even write this? Or is it just another hoax cooked by 9/11 conspiracy theorists? But you know there are people who truly believe in his prophecies and explain to you how right Nostradamus was, how enlighten he was, how far ahead he was of his time. I couldn't find one for which he was right. He made numerous predictions about the future. Remember Nostradamus? The famous French prophet of The Middle Ages? Our Irrational Selves - The Confirmation Bias The Hindsight Bias

Our Irrational Selves - The Priming EffectĢ.

#Retrospect vs hindsight series#

This is the third part of the series on human irrationality. Think about it, if you go camping and you are to take, say, 60 items with you, what are the chances that you're going to forget something of use, anything? Unless you do very careful written planning, chances are you're going to forget something. If nothing was forgotten, he would not have said that - fake hunch. While camping when this issue is brought up, your father replies: 'I was sure this would happen!'. As it turns out, you forget to take mosquito protection spray. While preparing to go camping, your father tells your mother he feels someone is going to forget something at home. You tell that to your mother and she replies: 'Of course, I had a strong feeling you were going to be accepted', when in fact she had expressed doubts about it to your father earlier this week - she doesn't remember that though.Ģ. You receive a letter in the mail informing you that you have just been accepted to this illustrious college. We humans tend to be very good at predicting events - after they had already occurred. That's why this lesson happened.'I knew it all along!' How many times a day you tell that to yourself? In English, we usually say "in retrospect," and "in hindsight," or "with hindsight." BANNER PLACEHOLDERĬol senno del poi is an expression we hear often in Italian, but it's just quirky enough that it's hard to guess its intuitively.

Col senno di/del poi (with the wisdom of what happens afterward).

#Retrospect vs hindsight plus#

Note that the Italian expression uses the preposition con (with) plus the article il (the): col = con il. 3 - L'oro dello squalo - Part 10 Play Caption It's easy to speak with hindsight , but I hadn't.Ĭaptions 22-25, La Ladra - Ep. È facile parlare col senno del poi, ma io non avevo. BANNER PLACEHOLDERĮnglish uses the verb "to see," "to look back." Italian uses the noun senno (wisdom, good judgment, common sense) a not-so-common word outside of expressions such as the present one. It also uses poi, which as an adverb means "then" or "after" and as a noun means "the future," or "the hereafter." So we're talking about wisdom after the fact.Ĭonsider this dialog between Dante and Eva from a recent episode of La Ladra.īut just think. If you want to talk about hindsight in Italian, you can't really use your intuition.